Corporate Valuation, Oil & Gas
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January 2, 2017

Quick Facts: Bakken

Each quarter, Mercer Capital’s Exploration & Production Industry newsletter provides an overview of the E&P sector, including world demand and supply, public market performance, valuation multiples for public companies, and a region focus.  Mercer Capital closely follows oil and gas trends in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford Shale, Bakken Shale, and Marcellus and Utica Shale.  Last quarter our E&P newsletter, focused on the Bakken Shale.  Today, we take a step back and review the broad characteristics of the Bakken Shale. Download this information in a convenient PDF at the bottom of this post.

Bakken at a Glance

First Discovered1951
Discovery as Viable Play2000
Primary ProductionOil
Oil TypeSweet, Light Crude
PlayUnconventional Shale
DrillingHorizontal, Multi-Stage Hydraulic Fracturing
Top 3 Production CompaniesContinental, Whiting, Hess
Breakeven$29 – $77 per barrel 1
Abnormal DUCs526 2
Production Since 20072,517 MMBOE 3
IssuesCost of Extraction & Cost of Transportation
PotentialImproving Technology, Dakota Access Pipeline Project, and Large, Undiscovered Quantities of Oil & Gas
1 North Dakota Dept. of Mineral Reserves Sept. 2015 county-level estimates 2 Drilled Uncompleted Wells with > 3 months in inventory as of January 2016; also referred to as fraclog (Bloomberg Intelligence) 3 EIA as of June 2016

Overview

At 14,700 sq. miles, the Bakken and associated Three Forks formation is the largest continuous crude oil source in the U.S. Discovered in 1951, it remained largely unproductive until 2000 when technological advances such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling enabled economically viable production of its sizable reserves.The region has struggled recently due to falling oil prices.

Geography & Drilling

The Bakken is primarily an oil producing region. It is made up of three layers: top and bottom shale layers, and a siltstone and sandstone middle member. The two shale layers function as source rock that traps oil in the middle member. Even this middle member, however, has low permeability and low porosity, making this a tight, unconventional play. Multi-stage hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling are used to extract oil, and pad drilling is commonly used to enhance efficiency. Underlying the Bakken shale layers is a more extensive, thicker shale play called the Three Forks. This layer is accessed using the same unconventional techniques, and is estimated to hold a little over half the undiscovered, recoverable resources of the total Bakken/Three Forks petroleum system.

bakken_map

Issues & Future Potential

Limited shipping options from the Upper Midwest create high transportation costs in the play. In combination with the low price of oil and the use of advanced drilling techniques, this lack of transportation pushes the cost of production above the realized wellhead price for most wells in the play. Looking to the future, the Bakken will benefit from new pipelines, continued technological improvements, the likelihood of eventual increases in oil prices, and the formation’s large remaining quantities of oil and gas.

Bakken Production

bakken_production

Undiscovered, Recoverable Resources in Bakken

Resource Estimate*
Oil7,383 MMB
Natural Gas6,726  BCF
Liquid Natural Gas527 MMB
*Mean estimates in the 2013 USGS report.

Mercer-Capital_Quick-Facts-Bakken

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Quick Facts: Bakken

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Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Defying the Cycle: Haynesville Production Strength in a Shifting Gas Market
Haynesville shale production defied broader market softness in 2025, leading major U.S. basins with double-digit year-over-year growth despite heightened volatility and sub-cycle drilling activity. Efficiency gains, DUC drawdowns, and Gulf Coast demand dynamics allowed operators to sustain output even as natural gas prices fluctuated sharply.
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Haynesville Shale M&A Update: 2025 in Review
Key TakeawaysHaynesville remains a strategic LNG-linked basin. 2025 transactions emphasized long-duration natural gas exposure and proximity to Gulf Coast export infrastructure, reinforcing the basin’s importance in meeting global LNG demand.International utilities drove much of the activity. Japanese power and gas companies pursued direct upstream ownership, signaling a shift from traditional offtake agreements toward greater control over U.S. gas supply.M&A was selective but meaningful in scale and intent. While overall deal volume was limited, announced transactions and reported negotiations reflected deliberate, long-term positioning rather than opportunistic shale consolidation.OverviewM&A activity in the Haynesville Shale during 2025 was marked by strategic, LNG-linked transactions and renewed international investor interest in U.S. natural gas assets. While investors remained selective relative to prior shale upcycles, transactions that did occur reflected a clear pattern: buyers focused on long-duration gas exposure, scale, and proximity to Gulf Coast export markets rather than short-term development upside.Producers and capital providers increasingly refocused efforts on the Haynesville basin during the year, including raising capital to acquire both operating assets and mineral positions. This renewed attention followed a period of subdued transaction activity and underscored the basin’s continued relevance within global natural gas portfolios.Although the Haynesville did not experience the breadth of consolidation seen in some oil-weighted plays, the size, counterparties, and strategic motivations behind 2025 transactions reinforced the basin’s role as a long-term supply source for LNG-linked demand.Announced Upstream TransactionsTokyo Gas (TG Natural Resources) / ChevronIn April 2025, Tokyo Gas Co., through its U.S. joint venture TG Natural Resources, entered into an agreement to acquire a 70% interest in Chevron’s East Texas natural gas assets for $525 million. The assets include significant Haynesville exposure and were acquired through a combination of cash consideration and capital commitments.The transaction was characterized as part of Tokyo Gas’s broader strategy to secure long-term U.S. natural gas supply and expand its upstream footprint. The deal reflects a growing trend among international utilities to obtain direct exposure to U.S. shale gas through ownership interests rather than relying solely on long-term offtake contracts or third-party supply arrangements.From an M&A perspective, the transaction highlights continued willingness among major operators to monetize non-core or minority positions while retaining operational involvement, and it underscores the Haynesville’s attractiveness to buyers with a long-term, strategic view of gas demand.JERA / Williams & GEP Haynesville IIIn October 2025, JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generator, announced an agreement to acquire Haynesville shale gas production assets from Williams Companies and GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Blackstone. The transaction was valued at approximately $1.5 billion.This acquisition marked JERA’s first direct investment in U.S. shale gas production, representing a notable expansion of the company’s upstream exposure and reinforcing JERA’s interest in securing supply from regions with strong connectivity to U.S. LNG export infrastructure.This transaction further illustrates the appeal of the Haynesville to international buyers seeking stable, scalable gas assets and highlights the role of upstream M&A as a tool for portfolio diversification among global utilities and energy companies.Reported Negotiations (Not Announced)Mitsubishi / Aethon Energy ManagementIn June 2025, Reuters reported that Mitsubishi Corp. was in discussions to acquire Aethon Energy Management, a privately held operator with substantial Haynesville production and midstream assets. The potential transaction was reported to be valued at approximately $8 billion, though Reuters emphasized that talks were ongoing and that no deal had been finalized at the time.While the transaction was not announced during 2025, the reported discussions were notable for both their scale and the identity of the potential buyer. Aethon has long been viewed as one of the largest private platforms in the Haynesville, and any transaction involving the company would represent a significant consolidation event within the basin.The reported talks underscored the depth of international interest in Haynesville-oriented platforms and highlighted the potential for large-scale transactions even in an otherwise measured M&A environment.ConclusionWhile overall deal volume remained selective, the transactions and reported negotiations in 2025 reflected sustained global interest in U.S. natural gas assets with long-term relevance. Collectively, the transactions and negotiations discussed above point to a Haynesville M&A landscape driven less by opportunistic consolidation and more by deliberate, long-term positioning. As global energy portfolios continue to evolve, the Haynesville basin remains a focal point for strategic investment, particularly for buyers seeking exposure tied to U.S. natural gas supply and LNG export linkages.
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released-Data as of 06-11-2025
Mineral Aggregator Valuation Multiples Study Released

With Market Data as of June 11, 2025

Mercer Capital has thoughtfully analyzed the corporate and capital structures of the publicly traded mineral aggregators to derive meaningful indications of enterprise value. We have also calculated valuation multiples based on a variety of metrics, including distributions and reserves, as well as earnings and production on both a historical and forward-looking basis.

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