The last several years have been nothing short of transformative for the transportation and logistics industry. Shifts in global trade patterns, consumer behavior, capital markets, and cost structures have left an indelible mark on both the operating performance and valuation metrics of transportation companies. A review of enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/ EBITDA) multiples across key subsectors, truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), air, marine, rail, and logistics, reveals three distinct eras: the calm before the storm (pre-COVID), the whiplash of the pandemic years, and the normalization that followed.
For firms across the transportation industry the valuation implications are clear: investors and acquirers are placing more emphasis on sustainable cash flows, cost discipline, and structural advantages versus betting on volatile upside. Below, we examine the leading demand, pricing, and operational trends shaping valuation outcomes and the rationale for the compressing of enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiples. But first, what impacts an EBITDA multiple?
EBITDA Multiples and What Impacts
Them An Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) multiple is a common financial metric used to compare the value of a business to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). In simple terms, it reflects how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company’s operating cash flow. The multiple captures both the company’s current performance and expectations for its future. Businesses with stronger growth prospects, higher profit margins, lower risk, or significant competitive advantages tend to trade at higher multiples, as investors expect them to generate more cash flow over time.
Conversely, companies facing slower growth, higher leverage, operational challenges, or exposure to cyclical markets typically trade at lower multiples. In essence, the EV/EBITDA multiple serves as a shorthand for market confidence in a company’s ability to sustain and grow its earnings, rising when outlooks are strong and compressing when uncertainty increases. In short, a company may trade at a high multiple is it currently low cash flow, but these cash are expected to grow rapidly. A company may trade at a lower multiple if its cash flow is steady or expected to fall or if it is otherwise considered “risky.”
Pre-COVID: Predictable Roads and Modest Differentiation (2017–Q1 2020)
Before March 2020, the industry had been impacted by the 2019 freight downturn, causing multiples across many modes to fall. Prior to 2019, truckload operators were trading in the high single digits; these multiples fell to the 5x to 6x range throughout 2019. Less-than-truckload operators had a high median multiple of 11.3x in June 2018 before falling to 6x throughout 2019. Air freight and logistics providers experienced similar declines. Rail operators generally commanded modest premiums, with the rail median multiple being in excess of 10x throughout the entire pre-Covid period, even through the 2019 downturn. Marine operators, with capital-intensive fleets, consistently traded lower, often between 7x and 8x but did not experience the same 2019 slide as road and runway based modes.
The COVID Shock: Unprecedented Disruption, Unexpected Prosperity (March 2020–December 2021)
When COVID-19 hit in March 2020, the transportation world braced for impact. For a moment, it seemed like a collapse was inevitable. Freight volumes plunged as economies locked down, supply chains fractured, and carriers struggled to reposition assets. Yet by mid-2020, the story had flipped. E-commerce (and last mile demand) surged, restocking booms overwhelmed warehouse capacity, and global shipping congestion created the tightest freight markets in modern memory. EBITDA multiples reflected the whiplash. Across every subsector, valuations climbed sharply through late 2020 and 2021, outpacing even the most optimistic expectations.
Truckload carriers rose from a low of 4.4x in Q1 2020 to 6.5x by year-end 2021, buoyed by record spot rates and unprecedented equipment utilization.
LTL operators surged from 4.7x in early 2020 to 9.8x by late 2021, supported by pricing power and a renewed focus on service quality.
Air freight and marine operators were more stable during this period and did not post the massive gains of their land-based counterparts.
Railroads, once steady but unexciting, hit historic highs: the median multiple jumped from 10.9x in early 2020 to 15.9x by year-end 2021, as investors treated Class I railroads as the backbone of post-pandemic supply recovery.
Logistics companies, especially asset-light third-party providers, also excelled. Median multiples climbed from 6.1× in Q1 2020 to 9.6x by the end of 2021, reflecting a surge of private equity and venture-backed capital into digital freight, brokerage, and tech platforms.
The key theme of this period was scarcity value. Transportation capacity, be it physical, digital, or otherwise - became a prized asset. Carriers and logistics providers alike commanded valuation premiums not seen in decades. There were several instances of small asset-heaving trucking companies being acquired at high premiums, not due to their expected cash flow, but due to the number of tractors and trailers that the smaller company could bring to its acquirer.
However, the tailwinds that fueled these lofty multiples were transitory. As supply chains recalibrated and stimulus-driven demand cooled, investors began to question how much of the Covid wave represented sustainable earnings power versus temporary distortion.
Post-COVID: The Return to Fundamentals (January 2022–2025)
By early 2022, the transportation sector began its long descent back to normalcy. Freight demand normalized, inventories stabilized, and cost inflation (especially for labor, insurance, and maintenance) ate into margins. Large capacity expansions during 2021 became a drain on ongoing resources. Rising interest rates further tightened the cost of capital, putting downward pressure on transaction pricing and public trading multiples alike.
Between 2022 and Q3 2025, median EV/EBITDA multiples contracted across nearly all transportation subsectors, though the degree of compression varied. In general, capital markets are rotating away from high-growth technology plays toward profitability-focused business models as the soft rate market stretches on. Most modes reach their lowest multiple points during 2022 and early 2023. Multiples rose briefly again during early 2024, but experienced compression again during 2025. Marine multiples fell to as low as 3x during 2022. Logistics valuations compressed from nearly 10x in 2021 to 5x in late 2022 before recovering to 6.7x by the end of Q3 2025. Rail multiples stabilized around 13×, down from the 2021 peak but still commanding a premium over other asset-heavy sectors, reflecting durable pricing power and high barriers to entry.
This post-COVID phase represents a return to valuation rationality. While transportation companies continue to benefit from structural tailwinds including nearshoring, e-commerce, and automation, the days of inflated multiples tied to shortterm scarcity and an extreme rate environment have ended. Investors now differentiate more sharply between operators with sustainable competitive advantages and those exposed to cyclical rate swings. Interpreting the Arc of Valuation Change Taken together, the data show a clear narrative arc:
Pre-COVID: Multiples reflected long-term averages and disciplined investor expectations.
COVID Era: Valuations spiked on extraordinary earnings, limited capacity, and surging demand.
Post-COVID: Multiples compressed but did not remain collapsed, ultimately returning to a level consistent with sustainable cash flows and normalized cost structures.
For valuation practitioners, the evolution underscores an enduring principle: while transportation earnings are cyclical, enterprise value ultimately follows the quality and predictability of those earnings. The pandemic didn’t permanently alter how transportation companies are valued; it merely reminded investors how sensitive those valuations can be to shocks in supply, demand, and capital markets. The industry has now re-entered an equilibrium, one that rewards steady performance, strong balance sheets, and operational efficiency over sheer volume growth.
Conclusion
Mercer Capital’s Transportation & Logistics team monitors valuation trends across all modes of transportation, from trucking and logistics to rail and marine shipping. Whether you’re evaluating a potential transaction, preparing for succession, or navigating a dynamic freight cycle, understanding where your business stands relative to historical and current market multiples is critical. Contact a member of our team to discuss how these valuation trends may affect your company’s strategic options and long-term value.
Originally appeared in Mercer Capital's Transportation and Logistics Newsletter: Q3 2025