NIB Deposits Anesthetize Bond Pain
The August Bank Watch looks at unrealized losses in bank bond portfolios based upon Call Report data as of June 30, 2022. Our review of unrealized losses as of March 31 can be found here.
Fed Chair Powell gave a short 8-minute speech on August 26 at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming economic summit that is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The gist of Powell’s speech is that the Fed is solely focused on reducing inflation. Powell’s speech in 2021 discussed “transitory” inflation and the timing of when the Fed might begin to reduce its monthly purchase of $120 billion of U.S. Treasuries (“UST”) and Agency MBS. At the time consumer prices were then advancing around 5% vs 9% now.
Last year, equity markets liked what it heard from Powell at Jackson Hole regarding the liquidity spigot; not so this year as the S&P 500 declined 3.4% and the NASDAQ declined 3.9% the day Powell spoke. The NASDAQ Bank Index declined 2.4% and is down 12.8% year-to-date through August 26.
Interestingly, UST yields did not move much even though Powell said it would not be appropriate to stop hiking at a “neutral” rate. As such, bank bond portfolios did not incur additional losses. In fact, the peak loss for most bank bond portfolios was in mid-June when the yield on the 10-year UST rose to 3.49% compared to 2.98% on June 30 and 3.04% on August 26.
Based upon our review of bank second quarter earnings calls and analysts’ writeups, investors seem to be taking the losses in stride given solid growth in spread revenues as NIM expansion has been dramatic. Last spring that was not the case when the ~150bps increase in intermediate- and long-term rates produced significant losses in bond portfolios given little coupon to cushion the higher term structure.
As shown in Figure 1, the Fed has hiked the Funds target rate much faster and by a greater magnitude than it did in 1994 when the Fed waylaid the bond market with 300bps of hikes. Bond portfolios were hammered as the hikes and an upturn in inflation drove longer-term rates higher by ~275bps. The curve became flatter but never inverted as investors assumed a recession would not develop. 1
Powell’s comments last week imply short-term policy rates may go as high as 4% by next Spring based upon futures markets. Given little movement in UST yields, bond investors are pricing in slowing economic activity and possibly lower yields to come. If so, the inverted UST curve prospectively will become more inverted if the Powell Fed can stomach the seemingly probable fallout as it pushes short rates higher.